Are We Approaching A Recession?

Companies are increasing commercial discipline amid uncertainty from consumer sentiment, business confidence, and trade volumes

Many executives are bracing for the possibility of a recession, as early signals suggest shifting sentiment and rising commercial caution. From pricing strategies to sourcing decisions, companies are already adjusting in ways that hint at broader economic recalibration.

Soft indicators have been raising eyebrows: Consumer sentiment, business confidence, and trade volumes show pessimism.

Infographic that shows a 20% drop in port import volume, a 27% decrease in consumer sentiment about the economy, and 62% of surveyed CEOs predicting a slowdown or recession in the next six months.

 

In recent weeks, stock markets have begun to recover. Prediction markets are now split on whether a recession is on the horizon.

 

Two graphs that show the S&P 500 between March 2025 and May 2025 and the Polymarket recession indicator between March 2025 and May 2025.

 

Amid this uncertainty, companies are taking action to mitigate exposures and increasing commercial discipline.

 

Bar charts showing how manufacturing, retail, and service businesses are responding to tariffs, from passing on or absorbing cost increases to finding new US suppliers.