In a world racing feverishly to develop ever-greater computing power, quantum technology is the holy grail. Based on the properties of the smallest known particles, quantum computers promise to store vast amounts of data and perform computations far beyond the reach of today’s technology.
Artificial intelligence may be at the top of everyone’s agenda, but CEOs also need to take quantum seriously given rapid advances in the technology, says Air Marshal Andrew Turner, a former Royal Air Force helicopter pilot who is CEO of investment firm Saibre Capital and a member of the UK National Quantum Advisory Board.
In just a few years, quantum processing will enable companies to make far more reliable forecasts of trends like the price and availability of semiconductors and greatly accelerate complex tasks like drug discovery, he contends. These technological leaps may be more powerful and disruptive than what we have already seen from AI.
“It sounds futuristic, but many things in the sci-fi world do come to pass,” Turner says of quantum’s potential. He spoke recently with Rupal Kantaria, a London-based partner with the Oliver Wyman Forum.
What is quantum technology and why should business care?
It’s exceptionally high-speed computing that is expanding the calculable universe so we can predict things that right now would be impossible. CEOs should not try to get inside the science. It is way too complicated. It’s far more fruitful to focus the board’s energy and time on what this level of compute could do for the business, and to ponder what competitors would do to the market if they were ahead of you.
Can you give us some examples?
It will be possible to predict what you'll do on Tuesday next week. Not because you have already decided but because your prior activity and routines make it predictable to a point.
There are countless use cases for business. Companies will predict consumption ahead of demand, assisting in logistics and eliminating waste. Modelling will trigger airline price wars. Planning tasks — optimizing train timetables, managing the energy grid, forecasting healthcare — will drive activity as forecasts become true maps of the future. Quantum will confer an enviable market advantage for those engaged.
The consequences could be profound over time. If you can predict, with very high certainty, outcomes of commerce, science, trading, even betting, the markets — where traditionally one went to secure the best price — will cease to exist.
What should businesses be doing about quantum?
Capabilities will arrive inside of five years, but now is the time to get quantum scientists onto advisory boards to generate business intelligence and a company plan. First-hand experience in strategy and tech teams will need to follow to turn insights into practical, deployable shop floor business advantages.
Early use cases will be optimization tasks like making the railways run more smoothly and keeping shop shelves filled. As quantum processing becomes more powerful, utility will shift to predicting things like consumer demand, the weather, harvest volumes, and how to flow air traffic around Europe more efficiently.
The third level will enable immersive simulation, rehearsing a series of complex events to predict outcomes and explore alternative theories of success. This is hugely useful today for military planners, and that will be equally true for public utilities and the entertainment industry. It is difficult to identify a sector that won’t benefit from quantum.
How will these capabilities affect human behavior, including the kind of choices leaders make?
I think it will follow curves like the ones we have seen for online commerce and AI adoption in the workplace: Initial skepticism leads to early adopters, some FOMO (fear of missing out), and ultimately mass-market assimilation. As one gains trust and confidence, you start to do more. Your individual productivity grows because you're solving really complex questions super quickly, which leads to greater engagement.
Senior executives are increasingly focused on the short term because the business environment is so uncertain. How might quantum affect planning horizons?
Executives are fixed by the moment, like for quarterly returns, which means fewer people are thinking about where the company should be in five to 10 years, and how to get there. Quantum’s capacity to simulate, rehearse, predict, and assist in business flow and plans will give companies the brain space to sit back and take a helicopter view of the business portfolio.
More things will be knowable quicker, which means we should be able to delegate the urgency that sits on most people's desks every day to some form of quantum-enabled automation.
How can leaders trust decisions based on a technology they don’t really understand?
It sounds odd but we do this every day. Few people question the inner workings of the carburetor when they buy a car. So, it should be with quantum. How it works isn’t the board’s business. Taking advantage of it is.
A sensible plan would be to run quantum in parallel with conventional systems to build trust and confidence with the technology and gradually change over. It’s like learning to drive. You don't just hop in a car by yourself the first time. You take lessons, gain confidence, qualify, and then your horizons expand.
How might quantum be used with AI?
I see a complementary trilogy in the space, AI, and quantum sectors. Each will enhance the other to produce an outcome that’s greater than the sum of the parts.
In space, for instance, debris trajectories can’t be predicted beyond a few days because of micro variations in Earth’s gravity. So companies are constantly maneuvering their communications satellites to miss debris. That reduces communication effectiveness and shortens a satellite’s life, requiring more launches that shed more debris — a negative, self-reinforcing cycle. When quantum processing can predict ahead, much of the challenge disappears.
Similarly, it’s really difficult to simulate the behavior of a complex molecule because of the many variations of its shape. This requires pharmaceutical companies to conduct lengthy, expensive, and mostly unsuccessful trials to find new drugs. Quantum’s vast power will shorten this process dramatically, allowing better solutions to be found faster.