Geopolitics can widen the portfolio of cities for
businesses
Geopolitics will intensify this change. In a world designed for
globalization and the seamless flow of goods and capital, multinationals could cluster in a
few giant hubs. But today’s rising tensions and policy divergence means companies will need
a broader portfolio of locations. New York still ranks high as a global champion, for
example, but a Chinese multinational will be equally focused on opportunities across the
Global South to benefit from China’s strengthening relations with the latter group of
countries in a politically disrupted world.
We expect the number and diversity of competitive global cities to
expand. Already, 32 of our top 100 Commercial Hubs are located in recently emerged markets,
such as Chennai or Guangzhou, places that likely would have been overlooked 20 years ago. As
technology lowers coordination costs and governments compete more actively for investment,
more regions will be globally relevant. This will intensify competition, not just between
cities but between alternative geographic configurations.
For business leaders, this shift represents both risk and
opportunity. Companies that remain anchored to a narrow set of incumbent cities may face
higher costs and reduced agility. Those that adapt early by designing flexible, system-based
footprints will gain a structural advantage in a more fragmented and fast-moving global
economy. The race is no longer just about locating in the top-ranked cities; it is about
having the right portfolio of locations worldwide.
Most connected cities worldwide
Number of cities served by each city's combined
airports
Source: Oliver Wyman
Planestats; Oliver Wyman Forum analysis
Clustering cities can multiply competitiveness for businesses
Business leaders also should look at a city’s surrounding ecosystem.
Hong Kong, for example, is a long-standing global leader. But increasingly its strength lies
in being part of a sprawling, dynamic triangle with neighboring Shenzhen and Guangzhou. All
three are commercial leaders with a range of capabilities, from global investment banks and
manufacturing giants to technology innovators. Taken together these cities are larger than
Tokyo, with a combined GDP of $1.4 trillion and 48 million people living within a one-hour
high-speed rail trip.
Similar clusters include Dallas-Austin-Houston,
Munich-Stuttgart-Zurich, and Singapore-Johor Bahru-Batam. Each city within these triangular
clusters contributes distinct strengths, making the group more competitive together than any
city individually. To this end, companies should ask which collection of cities provides the
best redundancy, specialization, and scale. This might involve unbundling functions, such as
placing executive leadership in Singapore, data centers in Johor, and manufacturing in
Batam.
It is time to refresh how we think about global city leaders. The
era of a small, fixed number of dominant cities is giving way to a more fluid and
competitive landscape, shaped by geopolitics, technology, and policy ambition, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
plan or Malaysia’s Madani Economy, which aims to boost growth and
competitiveness and improve quality of life. The result provides more opportunities for city
leaders to attract new companies and more chances for CEOs to align their operations with
city ambitions.