Geopolitics can widen the portfolio of cities for businesses
Geopolitics will intensify this change. In a world designed for globalization and the seamless flow of goods and capital, multinationals could cluster in a few giant hubs. But today’s rising tensions and policy divergence means companies will need a broader portfolio of locations. New York still ranks high as a global champion, for example, but a Chinese multinational will be equally focused on opportunities across the Global South to benefit from China’s strengthening relations with the latter group of countries in a politically disrupted world.
We expect the number and diversity of competitive global cities to expand. Already, 32 of our top 100 Commercial Hubs are located in recently emerged markets, such as Chennai or Guangzhou, places that likely would have been overlooked 20 years ago. As technology lowers coordination costs and governments compete more actively for investment, more regions will be globally relevant. This will intensify competition, not just between cities but between alternative geographic configurations.
For business leaders, this shift represents both risk and opportunity. Companies that remain anchored to a narrow set of incumbent cities may face higher costs and reduced agility. Those that adapt early by designing flexible, system-based footprints will gain a structural advantage in a more fragmented and fast-moving global economy. The race is no longer just about locating in the top-ranked cities; it is about having the right portfolio of locations worldwide.
Most connected cities worldwide
Number of cities served by each city's combined airports
Source: Oliver Wyman Planestats; Oliver Wyman Forum analysis
Clustering cities can multiply competitiveness for businesses
Business leaders also should look at a city’s surrounding ecosystem. Hong Kong, for example, is a long-standing global leader. But increasingly its strength lies in being part of a sprawling, dynamic triangle with neighboring Shenzhen and Guangzhou. All three are commercial leaders with a range of capabilities, from global investment banks and manufacturing giants to technology innovators. Taken together these cities are larger than Tokyo, with a combined GDP of $1.4 trillion and 48 million people living within a one-hour high-speed rail trip.
Similar clusters include Dallas-Austin-Houston, Munich-Stuttgart-Zurich, and Singapore-Johor Bahru-Batam. Each city within these triangular clusters contributes distinct strengths, making the group more competitive together than any city individually. To this end, companies should ask which collection of cities provides the best redundancy, specialization, and scale. This might involve unbundling functions, such as placing executive leadership in Singapore, data centers in Johor, and manufacturing in Batam.
It is time to refresh how we think about global city leaders. The era of a small, fixed number of dominant cities is giving way to a more fluid and competitive landscape, shaped by geopolitics, technology, and policy ambition, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan or Malaysia’s Madani Economy, which aims to boost growth and competitiveness and improve quality of life. The result provides more opportunities for city leaders to attract new companies and more chances for CEOs to align their operations with city ambitions.