Mexico City

The urban mobility emissions trajectory is not moving in the right direction, requiring dramatic shifts for the city to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2030.

City dashboard (2022)
Population 9.2 million
Surface area (km2) 1,485
Mobility demand (km) 168 billion
Mobility demand per person per day (km) 50.1
Mobility emissions (CO2e) 23.9 megatons
Emissions per person per day (CO2e) 7.12 kilograms

Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)

[i]
Based on cities’ existing action plans
5°C 3°C 1°C
Target 0.0°C

0.0°C

City trajectory
Target 1.5°C

Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030

-0%

0.0MtCO2e

[i]
Megatons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e)


Introduction

Mexico City is a car-dependent city with limited mobility alternative

Mexico City is heavily dependent on cars, with more than 75% of all passenger kilometers traveled via car. There is a strong demand for mobility, as 168 billion kilometers (104 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 23.9 MtCO2e.

Despite the reliance on cars, Mexico City has invested in public transit, bringing ridership up to 15% of all passenger kilometers in 2022 — a higher rate than a decade ago. However, the limited electrification of both cars and buses hampers the city’s ability to reduce emissions.

Mobility demand and emissions (2022)

Demand
Emission

Current situation

Mexico City is not on the right path to lower mobility emission

Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 19% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to increase by 18%, with small shifts to more sustainable modes of transportation such as public transit and walking.

Mexico City has been promoting public transit use by expanding and modernizing its network. Between 2019 and 2022, it allocated a US$5.5 billion budget for transport infrastructure projects and maintenance. While these efforts show progress, it will not be enough to offset the growing car emissions impact, which is projected to increase by 18% by 2030. Mexico City’s ongoing program to reduce emissions from cars (Hoy No Circula) exempts zero emissions vehicles from restrictions that prevent when gasoline-powered cars can drive through the city, which could incentivize future electric vehicle purchases but has not yet done so.

And yet, Mexico City’s current emissions trajectory is about 5.1 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 53% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.

Mobility demand (by mode) and emissions trajectory (2022-2030) 

Mobility demand per mode
Total mobility emission

Optimization

Fulfilling the Paris Agreement commitments by 2030 would require drastic change

We explored four different optimization scenarios:

  • Default: Minimizes mobility behavior changes
  • Electrification: Accelerates the transition from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles
  • Multimodal: Encourages the use of shared services and public transit
  • Active Mobility: Promotes walking and cycling as alternative modes of transport

Our model indicates that Mexico City cannot achieve the 1.5°C target without significant shifts in behavior and reductions in demand. Reducing demand is not an easy option and may not be realistic. Due to the significant existing car infrastructure, Mexico City should consider incentivizing electrification of public and private fleets. However, because of its carbon-intensive electric grid, the city’s ability to lower emissions will be limited. Without a sharp reduction in the power grid footprint and an increase in electrification, Mexico City would only be able to meet the target with a reduction in demand. To avoid going down that path, the city should consider pursuing a lower carbon grid paired with electrification.

  • Default
  • Electrification*
  • Multimodal
  • Active Mobility

* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 33% or approximately 17.0 kilometers (10.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones and car-free areas
  • Further limit daily car demand by expanding the “Hoy No Circula” program

Increase active mobility such as cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling road infrastructure and bicycle sharing programs like the city-wide ECOBICI network

Promote shared mobility:

  • Boost shared mobility options for users, mainly car as well as cycling and moped, through new incentives and the promotion of electrified car-sharing programs

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 27% or approximately 13.8 kilometers (8.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones and car-free areas
  • Further limit daily car demand by expanding the “Hoy No Circula” program

Accelerate electrification of the fleet:

  • Accelerate fleet electrification (cars and buses) through government initiatives like the Megaflux initiative to electrify the city’s Passenger Transportation Network

Increase active mobility such as cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling road infrastructure and bicycle sharing programs like the city-wide ECOBICI network

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 33% or approximately 16.9 kilometers (10.5 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones and car-free areas
  • Further limit daily car demand by expanding the “Hoy No Circula” program

Boost public transit:

  • Prioritize infrastructure investments in the public transit networks, such as the modernization project of Mexico City's Metro Line 1, a MX$37 billion and 19-year project

Promote active and shared mobility:

  • Continue investing in cycling road infrastructure and bicycle sharing programs like the city-wide ECOBICI network
  • Boost car, cycling, and moped shared mobility options for users through new incentives and promotion of electrified car-sharing programs

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 14% or approximately 7.5 kilometers (4.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones and car-free areas
  • Further limit daily car demand by expanding the “Hoy No Circula” program

Increase cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling road infrastructure and bicycle sharing programs like the city-wide ECOBICI network

Increase walking:

  • Continue investing in walking infrastructure, promoting pedestrian safety, and ensuring accessibility to all