Los Angeles

The urban mobility emissions trajectory is going in the right direction, but much more needs to be done for the city to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2030.

City dashboard (2022)
Population 9.7 million
Surface area (km2) 10,577
Mobility demand (km) 207 billion
Mobility demand per person per day (km) 58.3
Mobility emissions (CO2e) 27.3 megatons
Emissions per person per day (CO2e) 7.68 kilograms

Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)

[i]
Based on cities’ existing action plans
5°C 3°C 1°C
Target 0.0°C

0.0°C

City trajectory
Target 1.5°C

Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030

-0%

0.0MtCO2e

[i]
Megatons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e)


Introduction

Los Angeles is a car-dependent city with limited mobility alternatives

Los Angeles is heavily dependent on cars, accounting for 93% of all passenger kilometers traveled. As a sprawling city over a wide geography, there is an enormous demand for mobility, as 207 billion kilometers (129 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 27.3 MtCO2e – 99% of which came from personal cars.

Despite that car reliance, Los Angeles has committed to a significant increase in zero emissions vehicles, which will enable it to lower its emissions footprint. In preparation for the 2028 Olympics, the city has committed to a host of mobility improvements, such as bus and bike lanes and mobility hubs in central LA.

Mobility demand and emissions (2022)

Demand
Emission

Current situation

Los Angeles is on the right path to lower emissions, but more sustainable action is needed

Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 8% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 8%, driven by small shifts to greener modes of transportation, like electric vehicles.

Current mobility trends predict that electric vehicles will continue to increase in market share because of California’s ban on gasoline-powered car sales beginning in 2035, as well as increased investments in charging infrastructure.

Los Angeles Metro’s 2020 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) lays out a roadmap to build, operate, maintain, and partner for improved mobility through 2050. Measures include expanding the metro rail network to more than 200 stations over 385 kilometers (240 miles), investing $105 billion in roadway maintenance that includes new active mobility and multi-modal projects, and $7 billion in funding for active mobility projects like protected pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. This plan is projected to bring 1.84 million jobs and an increase in gross regional product of $196 billion.

And yet, Los Angeles’ current emissions trajectory is about 13.5 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 54% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.

Mobility demand (by mode) and emissions trajectory (2022-2030) 

Mobility demand per mode
Total mobility emission

Optimization

Fulfilling the Paris Agreement commitments by 2030 would require drastic change

We explored four different optimization scenarios:

  • Default: Minimizes mobility behavior changes
  • Electrification: Accelerates the transition from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles
  • Multimodal: Encourages the use of shared services and public transit
  • Active Mobility: Promotes walking and cycling as alternative modes of transport

Our model indicates Los Angeles cannot achieve the 1.5°C target without significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. Reducing demand is not an easy option and may not be realistic. Los Angeles already benefits from a low-carbon intensive, renewable grid, making electrification an appealing option. However, the size of the city and the large distances typically traveled are a significant hurdle. Los Angeles should explore enhancing electrified public transit and investing in infrastructure, such as dense housing that lowers the need for mobility.

  • Default
  • Electrification*
  • Multimodal
  • Active Mobility

* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand plans for zero-emission areas (ZEAs), such as the Green and Healthy Streets Declaration for a major area to be designated zero-carbon by 2030
  • Establish car-free zones

Boost public transit:

  • Boost public transit ridership by utilizing the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), the 30 year and $400 billion plan that sets to improve, expand, and upgrade LA County’s extensive public transit system
  • Continue investments in public transit infrastructure, and consider further incentivizing public transit fares

Promote active mobility and shared mobility:

  • Continue investing in walking and cycling infrastructure consistent with the Mobility Plan 2035, which aims to improve safety, infrastructure, and accessibility
  • Leverage the relatively inexpensive public transit costs to boost ridership and further incentivize public transit use by prioritizing safety measures
  • Increase the number of shared car, cycling, and moped providers while incentivizing these services

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand plans for zero-emission areas (ZEAs), such as the Green and Healthy Streets Declaration for a major area to be designated zero-carbon by 2030
  • Establish car-free zones

Accelerate electrification of the fleet:

  • Accelerate fleet electrification to swiftly achieve the Los Angeles Electric Vehicle Master Plan of a 10,000+ EV municipal fleet by 2035

Boost public transit:

  • Boost public transit ridership by utilizing the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), the 30 year and $400 billion plan that sets to improve, expand, and upgrade LA County’s extensive public transit system
  • Continue investments in public transit infrastructure and consider further incentivizing public transit fares

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand plans for zero-emission areas (ZEAs), such as the Green and Healthy Streets Declaration for a major area to be designated zero-carbon by 2030
  • Establish car-free zones

Increase active mobility:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in walking and cycling infrastructure consistent with the Mobility Plan 2035, which aims to improve safety, infrastructure, and accessibility

Promote public transit and shared mobility:

  • Increase the number of shared car, cycling, and moped providers while incentivizing these services
  • Leverage the relatively inexpensive public transit costs to boost ridership and further incentivize public transit use by prioritizing safety measures

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 35% or approximately 20.7 kilometers (12.9 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Aggressively reduce personal car use:

  • Expand plans for zero-emission areas (ZEAs), such as the Green and Healthy Streets Declaration for a major area to be designated zero-carbon by 2030
  • Establish car-free zones

Increase active mobility:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure consistent with the Mobility Plan 2035, which aims to improve safety, infrastructure, and accessibility by targeting the three-tiered Bicycle Network and a Neighborhood Enhancement Network

Increase walking:

  • Continue investing in walking infrastructure, promoting pedestrian safety, and ensuring accessibility to all through neighborhood initiatives like the LANI Initiative