London

The urban mobility emissions trajectory is moving in the right direction, but more efforts are needed for the city to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2030.

City dashboard (2022)
Population 8.8 million
Surface area (km2) 1,583
Mobility demand (km) 74 billion
Mobility demand per person per day (km) 23.0
Mobility emissions (CO2e) 6.1 megatons
Emissions per person per day (CO2e) 1.91 kilograms

Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)

[i]
Based on cities’ existing action plans
5°C 3°C 1°C
Target 0.0°C

0.0°C

City trajectory
Target 1.5°C

Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030

-0%

0.0MtCO2e

[i]
Megatons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e)


Introduction

London has a well-balanced mobility network that offers a variety of options

London offers a great mix of mobility services, with a balanced modal share between cars (50%), public transit (30%), walking (18%), and other modes. Mobility demand in London accounted for 74 billion kilometers (46 billion miles) traveled in 2022, generating 6.1 MtCO2e. Half of the distance traveled in 2022 in London was by car, contributing to 82% of mobility emissions despite the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) in central London, where polluting vehicles pay a daily toll to drive, and congestion charges.

Public transport ridership, returned in 2022 to almost pre-pandemic levels but additional recovery and growth are critical to achieve emission goals.

Mobility demand and emissions (2022)

Demand
Emission

Current situation

London is on the right path to lower mobility emissions, but more sustainable action is needed

Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 9% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to decrease by 20% due to greater electric vehicle adoption and public transit usage.

During COP26 (Glasgow) in 2021, the United Kingdom government committed to revisiting its 2030 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) with a new target to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030 on 1990 levels.

The ULEZ expanded across all city boroughs, rather than just in central London, in August 2023.

However, London’s commitments to address transport emissions are still roughly 1.1 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 33% decrease in emissions on top of current government commitments by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.

Mobility demand (by mode) and emissions trajectory (2022-2030) 

Mobility demand per mode
Total mobility emission

Optimization

How London can fulfill the Paris Agreement commitments by 2030

We explored four different optimization scenarios:

  • Default: Minimizes mobility behavior changes
  • Electrification: Accelerates the transition from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles
  • Multimodal: Encourages the use of shared services and public transit
  • Active Mobility: Promotes walking and cycling as alternative modes of transport

All the optimization scenarios get London to the 1.5°C target, but to do so requires significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. For example, the active mobility scenario would require each person to walk an additional 2.5 kilometers, or 1.6 miles, per day. The electrification scenario is the best fit for London because its power grid is transitioning to sustainable energy.

  • Default
  • Electrification*
  • Multimodal
  • Active Mobility

* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 8% or approximately 2.2 kilometers (1.4 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (such as the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ)) and car-free areas
  • Limit parking availability for personal vehicles

Increase active mobility such as cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure, such as new Cycle Superhighways, Quietways, Orbital, Radial, and Greenway routes, and routes that make up part of the National Cycle Network

Promote shared mobilities:

  • Increase the number of shared car, cycling, and moped providers while incentivizing these services

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, requiring a reduction in total mobility demand of 2% or approximately 1.0 kilometers (0.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (such as the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ)) and car-free areas
  • Limit parking availability for personal vehicles

Accelerate electrification of the fleet:

  • Accelerate the electrification of the fleet (cars and buses) through the Electric Vehicle Fleet Accelerator (EVFA) initiative

Increase active mobility:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure, such as new Cycle Superhighways, Quietways, Orbital, Radial, and Greenway routes, and routes that make up part of the National Cycle Network

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 7% or approximately 2.1 kilometers (1.3 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (such as the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ)) and car-free areas
  • Limit parking availability for personal vehicles

Promote shared mobility:

  • Increase the number of shared car, cycling, and moped providers while incentivizing these services

Increase active mobility:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure, such as new Cycle Superhighways, Quietways, Orbital, Radial, and Greenway routes, and routes that make up part of the National Cycle Network

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not require a reduction in total mobility demand but would require extreme increases in active mobility compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (such as the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ)) and car-free areas)
  • Limit parking availability for personal vehicles

Increase cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure, such as new Cycle Superhighways, Quietways, Orbital, Radial, and Greenway routes, and routes that make up part of the National Cycle Network

Increase walking:

  • Continue investing in walking infrastructure, promoting pedestrian safety, and ensuring accessibility to all