Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 48% by 2030 while CO2 emissions
are forecasted to increase by 50%, driven by rapid growth without a focus on reducing emissions.
Efforts are underway, but it will require enormous investment. As the city grows, the electrification of public transit and mopeds and investments in e-bike infrastructure will make the relatively high share of these modes more sustainable. Lagos’s Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has partnered with energy company Oando Clean Energy to offer electrified buses as an alternative to conventional BRTs and Danfo buses.
Nigeria has two plans: a near-term Climate Action Plan with goals up to 2025, and its Energy Transition Plan, which aims to achieve net zero by 2060. Nigeria also has specific agreements with the United Nations, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to end gas flaring, install 13 gigawatts of off-grid solar infrastructure, and improve energy efficiency by 30% by 2030. The Nigerian government targeted $10 billion in international investment to support these plans, but as of May 2023, still has not received funding.
In February 2023, the Director General of the National Council on Climate Change unveiled plans for a carbon tax policy.
While Lagos has made some commitments to address transport emissions, current projections will be 14.2 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an 115% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.