Berlin

The urban mobility emissions trajectory is moving in the right direction, but more efforts are needed for the city to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2030.

City dashboard (2022)
Population 3.8 million
Surface area (km2) 892
Mobility demand (km) 34 billion
Mobility demand per person per day (km) 24.3
Mobility emissions (CO2e) 2.9 megatons
Emissions per person per day (CO2e) 2.08 kilograms

Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)

[i]
Based on cities’ existing action plans
5°C 3°C 1°C
Target 0.0°C

0.0°C

City trajectory
Target 1.5°C

Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030

-0%

0.0MtCO2e

[i]
Megatons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2e)


Introduction

Berlin has a well-balanced mobility network that offers a variety of options

Berlin offers a great mix of mobility services with a balanced modal share between cars (45%), public transit (25%), walking (20%), and other modes. Mobility demand is robust, as 34 billion kilometers (21 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 2.9 MtCO2e.

Nearly half of the distance traveled through Berlin in 2022 was via cars, contributing 81% of mobility emissions. That’s despite Berlin boasting well-developed public transit systems and cycling infrastructure, strong commitments to sustainable mobility, and the fewest cars per person in Germany.

Mobility demand and emissions (2022)

Demand
Emission

Current situation

Berlin is on the right path to lower mobility emissions, but more sustainable action is needed

Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 7% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to decrease by 26% due to greater electric vehicle adoption.

Current mobility trends predict that electric vehicles will continue to increase in market share because Berlin plans to ban gasoline-powered cars beginning in 2030 and continues to invest in charging infrastructure.

But electric vehicles need to be folded into a holistic vision for all sustainable mobility modes. Berlin’s 2020 Mobility Act offers that vision, laying the legal foundation to organize transportation in a climate-friendly, accessible, and safe way. It considers aspects such as pedestrian safety and accessibility, personal bicycle and bike sharing infrastructure including parking, and electrification and affordability of buses and trams.

However, Berlin’s commitments to address transport emissions are still roughly 0.7 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 51% decrease in emissions on top of current government commitments by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.

Mobility demand (by mode) and emissions trajectory (2022-2030) 

Mobility demand per mode
Total mobility emission

Optimization

How Berlin can fulfill the Paris Agreement commitments by 2030

We explored four different optimization scenarios:

  • Default: Minimizes mobility behavior changes
  • Electrification: Accelerates the transition from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles
  • Multimodal: Encourages the use of shared services and public transit
  • Active Mobility: Promotes walking and cycling as alternative modes of transport

All the optimization scenarios get Berlin to the 1.5°C target, but to do so requires significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. For example, the active mobility scenario would require each person to walk an additional 7.4 kilometers, or 4.6 miles, per day. The electrification scenario is the best fit for Berlin, and an effort to reduce energy grid emissions would multiply the impact of electrification if the electricity were sustainably sourced.

  • Default
  • Electrification*
  • Multimodal
  • Active Mobility

* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 12% or approximately 4.0 kilometers (2.5 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (“Umweltzone”)
  • Institute car-free areas, such as the Volksentscheid Berlin Autofrei, an ongoing movement to create a car-free zone in the S-Bahn ring.

Increase ride-hailing and taxis:

  • Boost ride-hailing mobility for users through new incentives and promotion of services

Promote motorbike/moped use:

  • Boost shared mobility options for users, mainly moped as well as car and cycling, through new incentives and promotion of electric moped sharing programs

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 7% or approximately 2.9 kilometers (1.8 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (“Umweltzone”)
  • Institute car-free areas (Volksentscheid Berlin Autofrei movement to create the zone in the S-Bahn ring)

Accelerate electrification of the fleet:

  • Accelerate fleet electrification (cars and buses), such as the Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe (BVG) plan to have a 100% EV-powered bus fleet by 2030

Increase active mobility such as cycling:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 12% or approximately 3.9 kilometers (2.4 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (“Umweltzone”)
  • Institute car-free areas (Volksentscheid Berlin Autofrei movement to create the zone in the S-Bahn ring)

Promote shared mobilities:

  • Boost car-sharing options for users through new incentives and promotion of car-sharing services
  • Increase cycling and moped sharing services options for users

Promote motorbike/moped use:

  • Provide free parking spaces for motorbikes and mopeds and incentivize sharing services

Modal Shifts Required To Achieve 1.5°C (By Scenario)

When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not require a reduction in total mobility demand but would require extreme increases in active mobility compared to 2022.

Reduce personal car use:

  • Expand low-emission zones (“Umweltzone”)
  • Institute car-free areas (Volksentscheid Berlin Autofrei movement to create the zone in the S-Bahn ring)

Increase walking:

  • Promote active mobility by implementing the 15-minute city concept
  • Continue investing in walking infrastructure through the Berlin’s 2020 Mobility Act, promoting pedestrian safety and accessibility

Increase cycling:

  • Continue investing in cycling infrastructure through the Berlin’s 2020 Mobility Act, promoting personal bicycle and bike-sharing infrastructure